Date:         Sat, 20 Aug 2011 18:10:52 -0400
Reply-To:     Wensui Liu <liuwensui@GMAIL.COM>
Sender:       "SAS(r) Discussion" <SAS-L@LISTSERV.UGA.EDU>
From:         Wensui Liu <liuwensui@GMAIL.COM>
Subject:      Re: Time series data analysis - help required.
Comments: To: Shashank Sawant <sawant.ns@gmail.com>
In-Reply-To:  <CAEGaYHL9Mk+9ZN2F9UiBAnLgjZqg3JukSKJ7+_UGedXb_zMiZQ@mail.gmail.com>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1

hey Shashank

It is a little unrealistic to use arima model forecast 5 months out.
this is a common mistake that usually a newbie would make.

generally, arima is a short-memory model and best used to predict a
couple periods ahead.

for your case, your better bet might be forecast procedure. however,
an interesting observation is that the forecast result is sensitive to
the default setting of this procedure :-).


On 8/20/11, Shashank Sawant <sawant.ns@gmail.com> wrote:
> Hi All,
>
> I have a time series data and need to forecast premium from Aug11-Dec11. I
> have gone through PROC ARIMA, FORECAST reading materials, but unable to
> proceed.
> Could you please help me on how to proceed further/
>
> Below is the data for your reference.
>
> Thanks in advance for your help.
>
>  data new;
> input year:monyy. premium @@;
> format year monyy.;
> datalines;
> Jan08 9909
> Feb08 8548
> Mar08 191
> Apr08 858
> May08 143
> Jun08 6244
> Jul08 5007
> Aug08 1721
> Sep08 644
> Oct08 386
> Nov08 52641
> Dec08 5463
> Jan09 215
> Feb09 658
> Mar09 510
> Apr09 4832
> May09 485
> Jun09 2382
> Jul09 265
> Aug09 1006
> Sep09 6302
> Oct09 2178
> Nov09 21321
> Dec09 36468
> Jan10 1833
> Feb10 4999
> Mar10 2096
> Apr10 1749
> May10 3215
> Jun10 9953
> Jul10 -108
> Aug10 1342
> Sep10 1830
> Oct10 9677
> Nov10 43563
> Dec10 20196
> Jan11 9445
> Feb11 -618
> Mar11 788
> Apr11 2428
> May11 3431
> Jun11 13550
> Jul11 712
> ;
> run;
> Regards,
> Shashank
>


--
==============================
WenSui Liu
Credit Risk Manager, 53 Bancorp
wensui.liu@53.com
513-295-4370
==============================