Somewhat related:

How do you setup your deciles? Do you use PROC RANK and TIES=LOW option to prevent the same score being split over 2 deciles?

Also, why just Test vs Control? Why not set up an experimental design to test multiple factors?

Jonas Bilenas JP MORGAN CHASE BANK

On Tue, 6 Sep 2005 15:42:03 -0400, Talbot Michael Katz <topkatz@MSN.COM> wrote:

>Hi, Nick. > >As Peter Luo has advised you, you should choose your control group from >across your entire target population, if you want to measure the >difference between using a model and targeting at random. You might wish >to check out a previous SAS-L thread concerning "Control Group Assignment" >from the second week of July. I gave the standard formula for computing >sample size needed to discriminate between the test and control response >rates (http://listserv.uga.edu/cgi-bin/wa?A2=ind0507B&L=sas-l&P=R7421). >But you will also want to pay close attention to David Cassell's critique >of that (http://listserv.uga.edu/cgi-bin/wa?A2=ind0507B&L=sas- >l&D=0&P=11278). > >Good luck! > >-- TMK -- >"The Macro Klutz" > > >On Tue, 6 Sep 2005 13:35:17 -0500, Nick . <ni14@MAIL.COM> wrote: > >>Hello, >> >>I have a question regarding the selection of a CONTROL GROUP in a direct >marketing campaign (banking) setting. >> >>I have built a (logistic) model and I have deciled my PROSPECT population >from DECILE1 (low probability of rersponse) to DECILE10 (high probability >of response). For example, if I have a prospect population of 1 million, >then each decile gets 100K. I want to campaign to DECILE7 through >DECILE10. At the same time, I wish to put aside a CONTROL GROUP to see how >the model will perform against it. Here is my thought: >> >>Since I have 1 million prospects, I will select 400K prospects--100K from >DECILE7, 100K from DECILE8, 100K from DECILE9, and 100K from DECILE10. >That's 400K, the population I will campaign to. I want to put aside 10% as >a control group. >> >>Do I randomly select the 10% from the 400K records (so I will end up >campaigning to 360K) or do I randomly select the 10% from the 1 million >records? >> >>If I select the 10% from the 400K prospects (my high probability of >response prospects according to the model), execute the campaign, the >results come back and I see a response rate from the campaign (i.e. the >model) and the control about the same, say about 5% response for the >mailed (modeled) group and the control group, then am I saying that the >model is not a good model because it has not provided a higher response >than the control? >> >>If I select the 10% from the 1 million prospects (my high probability of >response prospects), execute the campaign, the results come back and I see >a response rate from the campaign (i.e. the model) and the control much >different, say 5% response for the mailed (modeled) group and 2% for the >control group, then am I saying that the model is a good model because it >has provided a (much) higher response than the control? >> >> >>I guess, I don't quite know how to select the control group so as to >compare model response rate to control group response rate. >> >>Your thoughts are much needed and appreciated. >> >>NICK >> >> >>-- >>___________________________________________________________ >>Sign-up for Ads Free at Mail.com >>http://promo.mail.com/adsfreejump.htm