Date: Mon, 22 Mar 2004 18:00:58 +0100 Reply-To: Fair Shannon Sender: "SAS(r) Discussion" From: Fair Shannon Subject: Re: Statistical Modeling Question Comments: To: Nick I Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Hi Nick - Usually the number of times mailed is highly correlated with their response. You can use a variable in the model, say 'times mailed,' and see what happens. In general, they're more likely to respond if they've never been solicited or have only been solicited once before, regardless of slight variations in product. If you know which product they responded to, maybe you could see if the product is causing them to respond. You could create interaction variables as well to see if it is the combination of product & times mailed that is driving the response. Hope this helps... Shannon Fair -----Original Message----- From: Nick I [mailto:ni14@MAIL.COM] Sent: Monday, March 22, 2004 11:24 AM To: SAS-L@LISTSERV.UGA.EDU Subject: Statistical Modeling Question Hello SAS forum I have a statistical modeling problem I need some guidance/ideas on. Say I have a mortgage with a bank. As you know the bank will send me, at some point, information on some of its other products (insurance, bank-related products, etc.) for me to sign on. Here is an example: CUSTOMER_1 In Mar04, they campaign to customer_1 product A. He gets it in the mail, he reads it, he tosses it out. In May04, they campaign to customer_1 product A. He gets it in the mail, he reads it, he tosses it out. In Sep04, they campaign to customer_1 product A. He gets it in the mail, he reads it, he tosses it out. In Dec04, they campaign to customer_1 product A. He gets it in the mail, he reads it, he tosses it out. CUSTOMER_2 In Mar04, they campaign to customer_2 product A. He gets it in the mail, he reads it, he tosses it out. In May04, they campaign to customer_2 product A. He gets it in the mail, he reads it, he accepts. (Bank will no longer campaign to CUSTOMER_2 this product since they bought it, so what's the point, right?) CUSTOMER_3 In Mar04, they campaign to customer_3 product A. He gets it in the mail, he reads it, he accepts. (Bank will no longer campaign to CUSTOMER_3 this product since they bought it, so what's the point, right?) CUSTOMER_4 This customer is like CUSTOMER_1. CUSTOMER_5 In Mar04, they campaign to customer_5 product A. He gets it in the mail, he reads it, he tosses it out. In May04, they campaign to customer_5 product A. He gets it in the mail, he reads it, he tosses it out. In Sep04, they campaign to customer_5 product A. He gets it in the mail, he reads it, he tosses it out. In Dec04, they campaign to customer_5 product A. He gets it in the mail, he reads it, he accepts. (Bank will no longer campaign to CUSTOMER_5 this product since they bought it, so what's the point, right?) The most I have seen a customer being campaigned to is 4 times in the space of a year. My question is: How can I use SAS to model the response in this problem? CUSTOMER_1 never responded CUSTOMER_2 responded the ***2ND*** time (i.e. in the 2nd try) CUSTOMER_3 responded the ***1ST*** time (i.e. in the 1st try) CUSTOMER_4 never responded CUSTOMER_5 responded the ***4TH*** time (i.e. in the 4th, and last try, for this year 2004) In this problem I have kept the PRODUCT A the same for simplicity. In real life, and this is happening to me right now with a credit card company (Citi bank), product A will vary slightly from campaign to campaign. For example, in my case, the first time I received their credit card offer was for an APR of 8.99%. (I did not respond.) A few days ago (i.e. about a month later) I received their second offer except the APR was 5.99% this time, all else was the same. Anyway. You see the problem I am trying to solve. (I am still not responding bec., I don't like certain other things although the APR is great.) By the way. If you think you can also offer me suggestions on how to solve this more realistic problem where product A changes sligthly, that will be great. I am affraid though that when you send different products--even if they are slightly different--to the same person and the person responds the 3rd time, you don't really know if they responded bec. of the # of times they have been touched, or bec. they received a slightly different pr oduct and they liked it better and therefore responded. I just wanted to keep the product the same so the statistical theory will be easier, I think???? What I am trying to understand is if there is a connection between the number of campaigns and response. Say I am CUSTOMER_5 and that I was in a 'bad mood' when I got the mailings for product A the previous 3 times, but on the 4th time, for whatever reason, I responded. (NOTE: I am keeping the PRODUCT A the same so we don't have too many things changing, but, in reality, say, I responded this time bec. their offer got sweeter and more to my liking.) That's what I want SAS to help me understand. You help is appreciated as always nick -- ___________________________________________________________ Sign-up for Ads Free at Mail.com http://www.mail.com/?sr=signup

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