cassell.david@EPAMAIL.EPA.GOV (David L. Cassell) wrote in message news:<OF9C3C687B.6AD6C467-ON88256DAD.0077959A@epamail.epa.gov>... > kende jan <kendejan@YAHOO.FR> wrote: > > I have data relating to the temperatures and the deaths day per day > > and age group for one year. I will like to compare the rates of deaths > > for two particular periods. What can bring the methods of the time > > series to me? > > > If somebody can give me indications in order to treat these data this > > would help me enormously. > > Hmmm. First, it is not clear to me that you are really analyzing the > data as a time series. If you only want to compare two rates taken at > different times, then I would say that you do *not* have much of a time > series problem. If you want to look at temporal trends for different > groups, then that looks much more like a time series problem to me. > either way, I think that you will want to consult with a statistician > near you and get his/her opinions after he/she has a chance to study > your data. > > If you want to try to analyze the data yourself using time series > analysis, then I would recommend a book like: > > "Applied time series analysis for the social sciences" by McCleary and > Hay > > But be wanred that a lot of time series analysis is studying the data, > performing diagnostic plots, evaluating analyses, model-building and > model-testing, and more hands-on work which is not strictly the sort of > "plug in the numbers and come up with a magic formula" work that plenty > of > forecasting software packages try to tell you it is. > > HTH, > David

FROM one DAVID to another

"But be wanred that a lot of time series analysis is studying the data, performing diagnostic plots, evaluating analyses, model-building and model-testing, and more hands-on work which is not strictly the sort of "plug in the numbers and come up with a magic formula" work that plenty of forecasting software packages try to tell you it is."

This is exactly what AUTOBOX/FreeFore does ...

on my DAVID word of honor !

We deliver all the Mcleary-Hay data with Freefore

http://www.autobox.com/freef.exe

just be warned that FreeFore comes up with much better models than is reported in the text ....since the text is almost 25 years old .

I would be glad to discuss the differences with you.

David P. Reilly Senior Vice President Automatic Forecasting Systems (AFS) 215-675-0652