William,

More interesting would be the St. Petersburg paradox. We play a game. I flip a coin. If it comes up heads you get a dollar and the game ends, otherwise I flip again. Heads and you get two dollars and the game ends, otherwise I flip again. Heads and you get 4 dollars and the game ends.

So if it takes n flips to get a head you get 2**n dollars.

So you get everything. Now the question is, how much are you willing to pay me to play the game. The paradox? The expected payoff is infinite.

Will a mathematician pay more than a lottery player to play this game?

Ian Whitlock <whitloi1@westat.com>

-----Original Message----- From: William W. Viergever [mailto:wwvierg@IBM.NET] Sent: Friday, September 29, 2000 12:36 PM To: SAS-L@LISTSERV.UGA.EDU Subject: Re: In Celebration of a milestone!!!

Come on folks, let's get back down to it:

If you pick one door out of three and Monte opens one of the other ones ....

At 12:12 PM 09/29/2000, Abakah Nori (crm1nxa) wrote: >To add my two cents: >I gave up on lottery after my 3 credit class on Probability and Statistics! > >p.s.: Great site, Mr. Patridge! > >-----Original Message----- >From: Baar, Bill [mailto:Bill.Baar2@MED.VA.GOV] >Sent: Friday, September 29, 2000 11:34 AM >To: SAS-L@LISTSERV.VT.EDU >Subject: Re: In Celebration of a milestone!!! > > >A few years ago there was a study on people who won million dollar plus >lotteries twice. It's not as unusual as you would think. I play because I >know someone somewhere wins every week... for certain. > >-----Original Message----- >From: Jim Agnew [mailto:agnew@HSC.VCU.EDU] >Sent: Friday, September 29, 2000 7:23 AM >To: SAS-L@LISTSERV.UGA.EDU >Subject: Re: In Celebration of a milestone!!! > > >Well, in Virginia, I stand in line behind people in Seven-11's waiting >patiently while they cought up 10, 50, 100 bucks for slight >chanches... i really feel for 'em, i really do, but stupidity brings it's >own punishment.... > >They did a study on the Penna lottery winners, and w/o exception, all the >winners were bankrupt when their money ended. now, i'd >expect maybe 50%, but *ALL* of them???? > >ew.. that alone keeps me outta those lotteries.. > >> "Mitchell, Brian [EESUS]" wrote: >> >> Actually there's a very good reason for non-rich people to play high >stakes >> lotteries even though "on average" they will lose. In economic terms, it >> has to do with a non-linear utility function so that they are willing to >give up >> a small portion of their current income, an amount that has little effect >on >> their standard of living, for a miniscule chance of being catapulted to >riches. >> They may be poor but they're not stupid! >> >> -----Original Message----- >> From: David L. Cassell [SMTP:Cassell.David@EPAMAIL.EPA.GOV] >> Sent: Thursday, September 28, 2000 11:51 AM >> To: SAS-L@LISTSERV.UGA.EDU >> Subject: Re: In Celebration of a milestone!!! >> >> Jules Bosch wrote [in reply to Mark Dehaan]: >> > Ah, yes, the statistical aspect of lotteries. >> > >> > I think rule #1 is that Lotteries are primarily for people who >flunked >> > statistics. >> >> I prefer: >> >> Lottery, n., a tax on the math-impaired. >> >> :-) >> David >> -- >> David Cassell, OAO Corp. >Cassell.David@epa.gov >> Senior computing specialist >> mathematical statistician

---------------------------------------------------------------------------- William W. Viergever Voice : (916) 483-8398 Viergever & Associates Fax : (916) 486-1488 A SAS Institute Quality Partner (USA) E-mail : wwvierg@ibm.net Sacramento, CA 95825

"Age is a question of mind over matter. If you don't mind, it don't matter." - Satchel Paige -

"Age is something that doesn't matter, unless you are a cheese." - Billie Burke, Glinda the Good Witch ----------------------------------------------------------------------------