Date: Wed, 26 Jan 2000 21:09:17 GMT
Reply-To: Kyle Dane <kyledane@MY-DEJA.COM>
Sender: "SAS(r) Discussion" <SAS-L@LISTSERV.UGA.EDU>
From: Kyle Dane <kyledane@MY-DEJA.COM>
Organization: Deja.com - Before you buy.
Subject: Re: an interesting game
Kyle Dane <email@example.com> wrote:
> The interesting thing is that you do improve your chances of winning
> you recognize this as a strategy. Over a large number of repetitions
> strategy of switching about half the time improves your chances of
> winning from 1/3 to 1/2 over never switching. However, you do not
> improve your chances if you switch *every time*. If you switch every
> time, you're right back to 1/3 again.
This is great, I have to correct myself. In fact, your chances of
winning never were 1/3 (or 2/3 for that matter). They are and always
will be 1/2, regardless of the strategy you use with regard to
switching. Your chances of picking the correct one on the first shot is
1/3, but your chance of winning is always 1/2, equal whether you switch
or not. I will demonstrate later how this works and why so many
simulations, like the one posted already today, fail to produce this
result. I'll also post a simulation of my own that does produce it.
Programmer/Analyst - UCSF Division of Geriatrics
firstname.lastname@example.org - 415-514-0714
Sent via Deja.com http://www.deja.com/
Before you buy.